2018 Rookie Draft Report Card

Intro

The rookie draft is all about leveraging the value you have to capitalize on the best assets possible. These picks will be graded on a scale because different expectations come from different levels of leverage in the process. In my opinion, capitalizing on value here is about playing the odds and recognizing the reasonable expectations of each prospect. Unifying scouting skills with negotiation skills, the Rookie Draft is an example of how we play this game at large. Here, I will do my best to evaluate everyone's execution of this particular process.

Round One Review

1. DeAndre Ayton (Nick Coromelas)
Age: 19
ESPN Position: C
NBA Selection: 1
Projected FPPG: 25
My Rank: 5
Grade: B+

-Ayton was the number one pick in the NBA draft & is expected to produce Kanter/Vucevic like number which is all very strong from the rookie draft. However, in getting this solid prospect, Nick may have passed on a transcendent one in Doncic. Overall, with the top pick in a draft this potent, I can't help feeling like DeAndre Ayton is a bit underwhelming.

2. Luka Doncic (August Keller)
Age: 19
ESPN Position: SG
NBA Selection: 3
Projected FPPG: 27
My Rank: 1
Grade: A+

-My actions explain my stance: I am all aboard the Luka Doncic hype train. Frankly, I am as excited for Doncic as I was for Ben Simmons two years ago, I believe he will be the front-runner for ROTY all year & I expect him to be the first out this class to make an All-Star game. Hopes are high for this kid & count on him to be an essential part of my team for the next four years.



3. Jaren Jackson Jr. (Brett Lakey)
Age: 19
ESPN Position: PF
NBA Selection: 4
Projected FPPG: 22
My Rank: 3
Grade: A

-According to most of the sources I ascribe to, JJJ is the right choice here but I personally like Wendell Carter Jr.'s fantasy chances more at the moment. Still, I can't argue with Jaren's outlier college stats or his equally impressive Summer League. My interest in WCJ is what keeps me from giving this the full A+ but Jaren could definitely prove me wrong.

4. Marvin Bagley III (Nathaniel Coromelas)
Age: 19
ESPN Position: PF
NBA Selection: 2
Projected FPPG: 20
My Rank: 9
Grade: C-

-Right after the NBA draft, Nate asked me who I thought the bust would be. A month or so later, Nate drafts my answer. I was never impressed with MB3's college stats or tape & his Summer League was a disaster. Furthermore, Sacramento is a disorganized franchise that certainly isn't known for its player development. When I hear that Bagley may struggle to beat out guys like Harry Giles & Kosta Koufos for minutes, it's cause for concern.

5. Wendell Carter Jr. (Richard Mamaradlo)
Age: 19
ESPN Position: C
NBA Selection: 7
Projected FPPG: 21
My Rank: 2
Grade: A

-I am a big fan of WCJ & he was someone I was circling had I not be able to get Doncic. This may be a hot take but I think Wendy is second best prospect in this draft. The reason this pick is not an A+, however, is because I wonder if Rich could have waited to take Wendell at #7 & landed Trae Young here as well. Only god knows if that was actually possible but I suspect it may have been.

6. Trae Young (Brett Lakey)
Age: 20
ESPN Position: PG
NBA Selection: 5
Projected FPPG: 22
My Rank: 4
Grade: A

-Brett landed a no-brainer at six with Trae Young. I know the jury is still out on this kid but I expect him to be a solid NBA starter for years to come &, with his ability to be a central offensive player, I think he is exceptional value this late in the draft. The only reason this isn't an A+ is because I feel it was such a clear decision to make and could be a result of mistakes by others.

7. Collin Sexton (Richard Mamaradlo)
Age: 20
ESPN Position: PG
NBA Selection: 8
Projected FPPG: 17
My Rank: 10
Grade: A-

-I consider this the most unclear range of the draft, where arguments could've been made for five or six different guys. In the end, Rich took a guy who has the full support of his head coach and opportunity to overtake the new chapter of his franchise (if that's what Cleveland decides to do). Sexton's cons will be the limited nature of his game, as he has shown little more than inefficient scoring so far. Still, I believe he is a top name here.

8. Kevin Knox (Michael Johnson)
Age: 19
ESPN Position: SF
NBA Selection: 9
Projected FPPG: 14
My Rank: 8
Grade: A

-Most of the things I said about Sexton at seven could be said about Kevin Knox here. Knox has shown an ability to be a volume scorer, will apparently have opportunity as his team is in perpetual transition, & has the backing of his head coach. I personally would consider arguments for Bamba or SGA at this spot, but Knox is a good candidate as well. I also give Michael bonus points for trading into this pick on a no-brainer deal.

9. Michael Porter Jr. (Daniel Leong)
Age: 20
ESPN Position: PF
NBA Selection: 14
Projected FPPG: 10
My Rank: 17
Grade: B

-Just a few months ago, MPJ was as high as third on my draft board before his draft stock collapsed. His injury issues, personality questions and surprisingly one-dimensional game thus far are definitely concerns but I am most worried about where he lands in the depth chart. Denver has playoff hopes & will likely show little patients for a high-volume, inefficient scorer, even if Porter does come back healthy. While I recognize his high-usage upside, I have little hope for the early parts of Michael Porter Jr.'s career & believe there were less painful choices available here.

10. Mitchell Robinson (Chris Nelson)
Age: 20
ESPN Position: C
NBA Selection: 36
Projected FPPG: 12
My Rank: 13
Grade: B+

-I like Mitchell Robinson because of his decent opportunity and stellar Summer League. & I think grabbing him at the ten spot is a solid way to the leave the draft. However, I do think Mo Bamba is the better bet at Center here. I know of more than one owner, like myself, who was targeting Mitch Rob later in the draft so this is definitely a good sleeper pick to be happy with. I just think the circumstances may have presented an even better option.

11. Mohamed Bamba (Frederick Cruz)
Age: 20
ESPN Position: C
NBA Selection: 6
Projected FPPG: 21
My Rank: 6
Grade: A+

-Sometimes autodraft knows best and, in this situation, Freddy may have inherited a steal with Mo Bamba. I am always skeptical of Orlando prospects but Bamba comes with a lot of evidence and decent opportunity as well. He will have to surpass Nik Vucevic to become a starter but the Magic seem ready to make moves to open things up for Bamba. At this point in the draft, Freddy is coming away with near lottery value.

12. Donte DiVincenzo (Brett Lakey)
Age: 22
ESPN Position: SG
NBA Selection: 17
Projected FPPG: 5
My Rank: 55
Grade: D+

-My dad loves Donte DiVincenzo but I'm not interested to be honest. The Bucks have too set of a lineup and too many quality veterans ahead of DiVincenzo for him to get many minutes this year. Meanwhile, there are a few names still on the board that I would much prefer to invest in. Maybe he can break out like Brogdon did but I see that as a tall order for Donte (or most prospects for that matter). Ultimately, I see rookies on teams with Conference Finals hopes to be at a disadvantage for fantasy purposes because they are less likely to see minutes.

Round Two Review

13. Mikal Bridges (Nick Coromelas)
Age: 22
ESPN Position: SF
NBA Selection: 10
Projected FPPG: 17
My Rank: 11
Grade: B+

-Mikal Bridges is a nice pickup here since I expected him to go in the first round but I actually think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the choice I would've gone with. Mikal Bridges would be another name I'd consider here so I shouldn't knock it too hard, however, I am deducting extra points for this being autodrafted as well. In the end, I believe Nick's inattentive efforts will yield inattentive results.

14. Aaron Holiday (Richard Mamaradlo)
Age: 22
ESPN Position: PG
NBA Selection: 23
Projected FPPG: 5
My Rank: 46
Grade: C-

-Like I said with DiVincenzo, I am weary of investing in rookies on teams with deep playoff hopes because I see them as long shots. I would have much rather taken Shai Gilgeous-Alexander here and would probably take Okobo & Melton before Aaron Holiday as well. Holiday has proven himself to be a solid player but his situation is more crowded than almost any other team, making him a stay-away for me.

15. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Michael Johnson)

Age: 20
ESPN Position: PG
NBA Selection: 11
Projected FPPG: 13
My Rank: 7
Grade: A

-SGA was another major fall in our draft &, of course, he goes to the defending champion. Gilgeous-Alexander had a very strong Summer League and good college stats as well. Despite the Clippers having quite a few veteran guards, I don't see any as a particular challenge & I also doubt this LA team's playoff hopes. So Shai is probably a good player and likely to find minutes by the end of the season, making him a first round prospect taken fifteenth. The only reason I didn't give Michael an A+ here is because I respect future 2nd rounders too much & he gave one up to make this selection.

16. Miles Bridges (Nathaniel Coromelas)
Age: 20
ESPN Position: SF
NBA Selection: 12
Projected FPPG: 14
My Rank: 14
Grade: B+

-Miles Bridges has a very diverse game & shows flashes of elite talent. However, he will be on a team that is unlikely to invest in their rookies next season. Maybe Malik Monk has earned his stripes but he also had to sit for a vast majority of his rookie season to get here. I believe Miles Bridges may suffer the same unfortunate fate. Maybe if he were in the optimal situation, Miles would be a first round prospect, but because of how his current team is postured, there is another name I would've taken here.

17. Jerami Grant (Brett Lakey)
Age: 24
ESPN Position: SF
NBA Selection: N/A
Projected FPPG: 16
My Rank: 23
Grade: B

-I always like being the first guy to take a free agent off the board because they usually have a higher rate of panning out but I think this class was a bit of an exception in terms of depth. Grant is definitely a guy I had my eye on because he is likely to start & that can be rare this deep into the draft. However at 24 years old, I suspect that we've seen the relative height of Jerami's game. Maybe he gets 22 fantasy points per game at 36 minutes a game which is nice here but is also a rather limited ceiling.

18. Lonnie Walker (Alex Campos)
Age: 20
ESPN Position: SG
NBA Selection: 18
Projected FPPG: 7
My Rank: 29
Grade: B-

-San Antonio has a player development mystique that cannot be denied but I struggle to see Lonnie Walker IV's path to minutes. Dejounte Murray has panned out but he stepped into a position that needed updating from the declining (& not relocated) Tony Parker. Walker will face stiffer competition for minutes in the likes of DeMar DeRozan. Much like with DiVincenzo & Aaron Holiday, I am reluctant to invest in rookies on competitive teams.

19. Jerome Robinson (Matt Wong)
Age: 21
ESPN Position: SG
NBA Selection: 13
Projected FPPG: 9
My Rank: 32
Grade: B

-Jerome Robinson is good value at this point in the draft because the Clippers are prime for a rebuild & he comes with the Jerry West stamp of approval. However, Robinson is also playing being the reigning 6th Man OTY and was considered a reach by many on draft night. It's a quality roll of the dice but I was relieved Huerter wasn't selected here.

20. Kevin Huerter (August Keller)
Age: 20
ESPN Position: SG
NBA Selection: 19
Projected FPPG: 8
My Rank: 12
Grade: A-

-I have high hopes for Kevin Huerter and consider him at first rounder prospect. In fact, I was in discussion with Chris for a trade at ten and was considering Huerter there. While Huerter is a relative unknown in terms of proven skill because he missed Summer League, he will have one of the largest opportunities for minutes early on. His game film and college advanced stats are all solid so I'm optimistic he'll perform decently down the stretch of the season.

21. Chandler Hutchinson (Daniel Leong)
Age: 22
ESPN Position: SG
NBA Selection: 22
Projected FPPG: 10
My Rank: 20
Grade: B+

-I had my eye on the Chan Hut after hearing that Chicago promised to draft him & his solid Summer League but his stock fell dramatically after Jarbari Parker signed with the Bulls & effectively took all of Hutchinson's minutes. There is still upside taking Chandler with the twenty-first pick but not much more than a puncher's chance given Chicago's burgeoning roster.



22. Zhaire Smith (August Keller)
Age: 22
ESPN Position: SG
NBA Selection: 16
Projected FPPG: 11
My Rank: 19
Grade: B+

-Much like with Chandler Hutchinson, Zhaire Smith comes with a lot of talent buzz yet questionable opportunity. This draft occurred before Zhaire's injury, which is unfortunate but Smith was always a long-term upside pick anyway. Zhaire Smith had an iffy Summer League but due to his athletic ability and defensive promise, he should see many opportunities to prove his worth over the years.

23. Luke Kennard (Nathaniel Coromelas)
Age: 22
ESPN Position: SG
NBA Selection: N/A
Projected FPPG: 15
My Rank: 37
Grade: B

-Luke Kennard spent time on a few of our teams last season, should be higher up in the depth chart this year & is as young as many of the rookies selected here. All this implies that Kennard has a higher floor than many alternatives but I question his ceiling. Maybe he turns out to be the next 3&D protege, but I am already having a hard time seeing Luke as a genuine starter. Detroit is in dire need of a SG so Kennard might  have more opportunity than most but the same thing could have been said before his disappointing rookie season.

24. Elie Okobo (Dorvan Byler)
Age: 22
ESPN Position: PG
NBA Selection: 31
Projected FPPG: 10
My Rank: 21
Grade: A-

-Watch out for the new guy (Dorvan) because he knows what he's doing. Okobo may be a second rounder but he has opportunity to start almost right away. With only the remains of Brandon Knight & Devin Booker's PG time to fight with, Elie should have the easiest path to starters minutes out of the rookies selected in this range. Maybe Lin comes back to bite us all in the ass but Okobo was clearly the best choice of rookie here. Arguably, he should have gone sooner.